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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

since the "take-off." Linear regressions fitted to historical data for thirty-two countries with reliable data are shown in Table 3. In this table "/" is a time trend which is set equal to zero at the onset of fertility decline; the "a" coefficient is the statistically estimated level of the crude birth rate at 1875 or later onset of continuous decline; the "b" coefficient is the estimated average annual amount of decline in the birth rate. Thus for Sweden the initial birth rate (in 1875) as estimated from the regression was 32.6 and the average annual decline (represented by the "&" coefficient) was 0.28 per 1,000 population.
The regressions do not take into consideration reduction of fertility that occurred in western and central European countries before the last quarter of the 19th century.
TABLE 3
Regression Coefficients for Decline of the Birth Rate during Modern Demographic Transitions, 1875-1969 (Linear Regression in Form of
y = a + bt)
Countrya	Periodb	Coefficient0 b	Coefficient01 a
WESTERN EUROPE AND			
THE UNITED STATES			
France	1876-1938	-0.15	25.5
Ireland	1875-1939	-0.09	25.1
Belgium	1875-1935	-0.28	33.7
Denmark	1885-1934	-0.31	33.6
England and Wales	1876-1934	-0.37	36.7
Finland	1876-1934	-0.32	38.5
Netherlands	1876-1936	-0.26	37.4
Norway	1878-1935	-0.29	34.2
Scotland	1875-1939	-0.29	36.0
Sweden	1875-1934	-0.28	32.6
Switzerland	1876-1938	-0.27	32.3
United States	1875-1934	-0.28	36.0
Average (excluding			
France and Ireland)		-0.30	35.1
SOUTHERN EUROPE			
Italy	1884-1953	-0.29	38.8
Portugal	1923-1969	-0.22	31.1
Spain	1885-1952	-0.24	37.8
Average		-0.25	35.9
CENTRAL EUROPE			
Austriaa	1875-1936	-0.35	37.3
Czechoslovakia11	1875-1937	-0.41	42.6
Germany	1875-1932	-0.42	42.7
Hungary'1	1883-1963	-0.39	44.9
Average		-0.39	41.9